The Property and Finance Show

July 2025 Market Pulse: Record Highs, Regional Gains & Surprising Underdogs

• Kyrillos Mansour - First Brick Property • Season 4 • Episode 10

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Australia's residential real estate market reaches $11.5 trillion in value, making up 55.9% of household wealth with national home values growing 1.5% over the past quarter and 3.4% over the financial year. We analyse the July 2025 Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) housing data to give you a comprehensive view of what's happening across Australia's diverse property markets.

• Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth form the "Power Trio" with 7-8% annual growth and all at record highs
• Darwin hits an all-time high after 11 years with 4.9% quarterly growth and 44% increase in sales volumes
• Sydney shows modest growth (1.3% annually) while Melbourne remains 3.9% below its 2022 peak
• New listings down 11.7% year-on-year, creating tight supply conditions across most markets
• National rent growth cooling to 3.4% annually with gross yields holding steady at 3.7%
• Dwelling approvals up 3.2% but still 24% below national housing targets
• First-home buyer share dropping to 29% of owner-occupied lending, lowest since late 2022
• Only 44.8% of suburbs at record highs, creating opportunities for value investors

If you're an investor or buyer looking to capitalise on this market, connect with us at FirstBrick. Don't forget to subscribe, leave a review, and share this episode with someone who needs to stay ahead in property.


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Speaker 1:

Welcome back to the Property and Finance Show. I'm your host, carlos Manso, and today we are diving deep into the latest numbers shaping Australia's housing market. We've just reviewed Cotality's July 2025 monthly housing chart back and, yes, it's called Cotality now, not CoreLogic or RP Data and, trust me, there's plenty for homeowners, investors and buyers to digest. Let's unpack what's happening nationwide, from record highs to declining listings and investors' behavior Investor behaviors, my bad. So let's have a quick look at the big picture. So Australia's residential real estate is now valued at $11.5 trillion, making it the single largest component of household wealth, even bigger than superannuation and the stock market. Housing market makes up 55.9% of total household wealth, which is huge. Over the past three months, national home values grew 1.5% and 3.4% over the financial year. Regional areas are still leading slightly, with 1.6% quarterly growth, but capital cities are closing in at 1.4%. So the key takeaway from the big picture here is that momentum is building. We are in a phase of steady growth, not rapid escalation, and that suggests more sustainable conditions. That's coupled with the stagnated and slightly reduced interest rates that have been coming through and, obviously, the last hold, which happened last week.

Speaker 1:

Moving on to our next segment, this is, I guess what everyone has come here to listen for this is the state-by-state breakdown. So let me tell you July 2025 is giving us a housing market that's anything but uniform. So some cities are booming, some are stalling, and one city in particular just hit a peak for the first time in over 10 years. So let's have a look. Brisbane, adelaide and Perth this is what we're calling right now the power trio. Brisbane is on fire Prices jumped 2% in the quarter and 7% year-on-year. Strong demand, tight listings and relative affordability the perfect storm. Adelaide quietly continues its winning streak 1.1% quarterly growth and 8% annually. It's now officially at record highs as a city. Perth also smashed it with 2.1% quarterly growth with 7% year-on-year, tied with Brisbane for the strongest month-long performance. Both are 0.8% over the past 28 days. Takeaway from these three cities these three are invested gold right now strong yields, growth momentum and very, very tight supply all making it for a hotbed of growth. It for a hotbed of growth.

Speaker 1:

Darwin the surprise comeback kid. So Darwin's values rose 4.9% this quarter and 6% annually, hitting a new all-time high, finally beating its 2014 peak. Not just growing Darwin had the highest quarterly growth of any capital and the largest year-on-year increase in property sales volumes up 44%. So what's going on? Low base effect, revived demand and affordability are all driving the bounce. Investors. Take note.

Speaker 1:

Darwin is heating up Sydney and Melbourne. So the tale of the two giant cities. Sydney's had a flat performance with a 1.1% quarterly rise and only 1.3% growth year-on-year, but it is still at a record high. Melbourne a bit more sluggish. Despite a 1.1% quarterly increase, prices are still down 0.4% year-on-year and remain 3.9% below the March 2022 peak. So big city blues maybe Sydney and Melbourne, but Sydney and Melbourne's high price points make them more sensitive to right hikes, tighter credit and investor pullback. So keep an eye on those two cities, hobart and Canberra stealing the shadows. Hobart is the only capital city where values dropped in June minus 0.2%, were up 2% annually and still 10.2% below its March 2022 peak. Canberra, positive in June, 0.9% up and quarterly 1.3%, but barely moved year on year plus 0.03%, still 5.3% off its peak. Quick note these markets may appeal to long-term buyers or longer-term buyers looking for discounts or contrarian plays. So even within cities, we are seeing diverging trends. In Darwin, lower value homes soared 5.7%, while high-end homes grew 4.5%, showing there is broad-based demand. In Darwin, brisbane's lower quartile has surged 2.7%, making it especially appealing for first-term buyers and entry-level investors. This segmentation is quite critical. Smart buyers are watching not just where, but which end of the market is moving. So let's have a quick wrap up of the leaderboard snapshot for the city. So I will say the city, the quarter to growth, the annual growth and the growth status. So Brisbane 2% for the quarter 7% annually. Record high. Adelaide 1.1% 8% record high. Perth 2.1% 7% annually record high. Darwin 4.9% 6% annual record high. Sydney 1.1% for the quarter 1.3% for the year or annual record high. Melbourne 1.1% quarterly growth, minus 0.4% annual growth. It is currently below peak. Canberra 1.3% growth for the quarter 0.3% for the annual growth rates currently below peak 0.9 quarterly, 2 annual minus 10 from peak.

Speaker 1:

So if you're watching the market, don't just follow headlines. The action is in the details. Whether you're buying, investing or just fascinated, australia's capitals are telling very different stories right now. So what's happening with sales and listings? National sales volumes are up 2.7% year-on-year. About 531,000 properties sold. Darwin led with a massive 44% surge in transactions, while Sydney, brisbane and Perth saw declines. Properties are taking longer to sell. Median time on market is now 35 days, up from 29 last year. New listings are down 11.7% year on year, the lowest June figure since 2020. So very tight. Stock and total listings have also dropped nearly 17% below the five-year average.

Speaker 1:

So for an investor, the note is, I guess the mismatch of demand and supply might continue to support price growth even with rate cuts looming, or especially with rate cuts looming, I should say, rental market realities. So let's have a look at the rental market. National rent growth has cooled 1.3% for the quarter growth and 3.4% annually, still above the pre-COVID average, but a major drop from 7.8% last year. Gross yields have held steady at 3.7% nationally, a solid result. But with price growth outpacing, rents expect some tightening here pretty soon.

Speaker 1:

When it comes to lending rates and investor behavior, dwelling approvals are up 3.2% in May, driven by units, but we're still nearly 24% below the levels needed to meet the national housing targets. New loan commitments fell 3.5% in quarter one. Investors held firm or held firmer than owner-occupiers. Investors made up 37.9% of all new lending above the 10-year average. First-home buyer share is dropping now just 29% of owner-occupied lending, the lowest since late 2022. The cash rate remains the same, but further cuts are possible. Banks are already passing on some cuts and average new owner-occupier rates are down to 5.83%.

Speaker 1:

Where are we heading? Darwin has hit an all-time high after 11 years. Sydney and regional New South Wales are also at peak values. But if you zoom into suburb level and this is really important only 44.8% of suburbs are at record highs, which means there is plenty of opportunity and it still exists there for value hunters. So, investors, this is the time to do your research. Growth is not even, and that's where smart buying thrives.

Speaker 1:

Final thoughts and, I guess, final final summation to sum it all up australia's housing market is rising, but steadily. It's not a boom and it's definitely not a bust. It's calculated regionally. Diverse recovery listings are low, sales are slightly up and interest rates are easing slowly. This sets the stage for a very interesting second half of 2025. So if you're an investor or buyer looking to capitalize on this market, connect with us at Firstbrick. Don't forget. Subscribe, leave a review, share this episode with someone who needs to stay ahead in property. Thank you very much. You've been listening to the Property and Finance Show. For more insights, visit us on Instagram, linkedin or head to our website, firstbrickcomau. And if you have any show, episode ideas, topics that you want us to discuss, guests you want us to have on. Please send us a message on any of those platforms and we will make sure we get that organized. Ciao for now.

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Kyrillos Mansour

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Fadi Youssef

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Mark Kilada

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